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Newsletter - April 29th, 2023

Dear Reader,


Attached is our latest list of stocks generated from basic value screens (low p/e, ev/ebitda, debt/equity, etc.), which don’t meet our investment criteria - and our reasoning.


This may help you avoid a few ‘value traps’ or stocks that aren’t sufficiently attractive compared to the opportunities available today.


For reports of stock ideas that pass our quantitative and qualitative standards, join at the link below:



 

Notes from 2019 Berkshire AGM below:

 

2019 Berkshire AGM


This was a meeting we personally attended. Notes at timestamps below:




15:15 Repurchase arithmetic


Repurchases only make sense when buying stock below a conservative estimate of intrinsic value - continuing shareholders must benefit in an increase in intrinsic value, not exiting shareholders.



39:45 Duck Club


Buffett once bought shares in a duck club in Louisiana that produced oil - he bought it for $29,200 a share when it had $20,000 a share in cash, $11,000 in pre-tax earnings, and $7,000 in after-tax earnings - insightful in what he looks for in a stock bargain. (He's more specific on the details in the 1995 meeting.)



58:15 "The business doesn't know how much you paid for it"


Kraft was earning $6bn pre-tax on $7bn in tangible assets, a wonderful business - but Berkshire paid $107bn for the stock eventually resulting in large impairment losses.


You can always pay too much for the best businesses and turn it into bad investments.



1:33:45 Don't delay gratification too much

Life is too short.


"If you aren't happy having $100,000, you're not going to be happy having $100mn." Never quite accepted this but interesting coming from Buffett, and mildly comforting.



2:03:15 Pricing Insurance


Caps on exposure; margin of safety in pricing relative to the odds. Insights from Ajit Jain on how he prices insurance - rare.



3:22:15 Materiality not Detail


Details on Berkshire's textile operation in 1965 wouldn't have been of much use to its investors.


The IFRS and US GAAP is constantly moving in the direction of more disclosures, which isn't necessarily meaningful.


"What matters to investors is how management is running money, what they have done with money in the past, and what they plan to do with it in the future - and how to measure that."


One way of looking at investing is that you're subcontracting your capital to management - it's important to select stewards carefully.



3:32:15 Pull Model


Buffett doesn't chase deals; he advertises his criteria and waits for his phone to ring - powerful psychological stance in getting good deals.



4:14:00 Be a Collector


A collector of undervalued stocks. Collectors are never dissatisfied.

 

Until next time, Cheers!

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