Newsletter - May 6th, 2023
Dear Reader,
Attached is our latest list of stocks generated from basic value screens (low p/e, ev/ebitda, debt/equity, etc.), which don’t meet our investment criteria - and our reasoning.
This may help you avoid a few ‘value traps’ or stocks that aren’t sufficiently attractive compared to the opportunities available today.
For reports of stock ideas that pass our quantitative and qualitative standards, join at the link below:
Notes from the 2022, 2021, and 2020 Berkshire AGMs below:
(Notes from the 2023 Berkshire meeting today shall be covered next week)
2022 Berkshire AGM
Notes at timestamps below:
12:45 One foot in front of the other...
... every day can lead to incredible accomplishments. No master plan or strategy - just rational steady progress.
28:00 Bank runs
Relevant today - banking is a confidence game. The central bank is the ultimate backstop. Park in treasury bills if not stocks.
53:45 Keynes on Markets
Hasn't changed since. The speculative impulse is the lifeblood of markets, which is the reason that methods to exploit it is likely to work long into the future. Sanity or being less irrational is enough.
1:32:15 Get value for your money
Forget market timing.
1:43:15 2nd half of your life
If you're blessed in life, there's no excuse for messing up the second half of your life.
4:33:00 Do what interests you
Lately been thinking of such advice as trite (i.e. just focus on things you're good at) - but hearing Munger, it's the obvious way to operate with an edge in the market.
4:34:45 Oil for the next 200 years
Probably noted before, but oil is likely to be in demand for a long time regardless of government diktats.
2021 Berkshire AGM
16:00 Impermanence of Corporate Dominance
Not one of the 20 largest companies of 1989 made it to the top 20 list in 2021. Competitive advantages aren't a sure thing.
23:00 Winners in a boom
Only three auto companies survived from the 100s operating in the 1920s. A booming industry may change the future - but picking winners isn't so obvious.
25:45 2020 reluctance
Didn't notice this before - but Buffett didn't pull the trigger in the 2020 crisis until monetary and fiscal stimulus kicked in. Similarly his 2008 actions followed Fed and Treasury actions - government will was important.
Implicit in buying stocks before then was faith that the government would act - stating this assumption is important.
1:16:45 Matching rate to risk
Insurance is about matching rate to risk - very similar to stocks. You must pay up for quality.
1:27:00 Treasury auctions
Buffett talks about people bidding for super-safe US treasury bills at 0% yield. Interest rates are like gravity - affects the value of every investment. Best to set a minimum buying threshold regardless.
1:47:15 Buying without insight
Rare compromise in Buffett's investing - buying companies where he doesn't have an edge in evaluation but which are better than US Treasuries as a group. It's practically impossible to sit around waiting for markets to feed you exactly what you want.
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